The inventory of homes for sale in San Diego remains extremely low, and dropping.  There were 4,832 houses for sale in March, which was 15.6% lower than the same month last year.  Similarly, there were only 2,051 condos and townhomes for sale in March, which was 17.9 lower than a year earlier.  At the current pace of home sales, this represents just 2.5 month supply of houses, and 2.2 month supply of condos.  The typical rule of thumb is that a six month supply of homes is a real estate market in equilibrium.  Less than a six month supply is a seller’s market, and more than six month supply is a buyer’s market.  The combination of rising prices and falling supply makes it pretty clear that this is still a seller’s market.

New Homes for Sale Rancho Penasquitos 92129

New home developers are stepping up to meet the lack of inventory of homes for sale in San Diego County.  A good example of this is the development of Rhodes Crossing in Rancho Penasquitos 92129.  The housing development, known as “Merge 56” will add 242 homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos, located at the Camino Del Sur exit off of Highway 56.  The residential mix will consist of 84 houses, 111 townhomes, and 47 “affordable housing” units, basically apartments.  The neighborhood will also include commercial space and offices in a pedestrian-friendly layout.

New Homes Rancho Pensasquitos

Merge 56 is the latest development of 242 homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos 92129

 

Also nearby Rancho Penasquitos in Del Sur 92127, Standard Pacific continues to build upscale homes.  The houses being built at The Estates at Del Sur include luxury homes up to 7,384 square feet.  More luxury homes are also being built in Encinitas, further into North County San Diego.  The development called “Mainhouse” by the builder City Ventures will include just 11 semi-custom luxury homes priced from the low $2 Million price point.

San Diego Real Estate News

There were 1,890 houses sold in San Diego County during the March 2015, and 906 attached condominiums and townhomes sold, a volume increase of about 4% over last year.  The average sale price of houses increased to $690,134, up 5.7% from a year earlier.  The median price of houses was up 6% to $519,540.  So both the median and the average prices suggest that prices are up about six percent in the past 12 months.

Condominiums in San Diego are showing significantly more upward price momentum.  The median price of the condos and townhomes sold in March 2015 was $348,825 and the average sold price was $409,378.  These prices represent increases of 15.4% and 9.7%, respectively.  So condos have increased in value two or three times as much as San Diego houses in the past year.  The market recovery for attached homes appears to have lagged behind an earlier recovery of house prices in the county.

Contact Geoff Schiering at 619-200-7612 for additional information about homes in Central and North County San Diego, including new homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos.

Rancho Penasquitos House Just Sold

Geoffrey Schiering by Geoffrey Schiering

Rancho Penquitos Houses 92129

One of the hottest real estate markets in San Diego, Rancho Penasquitos Homes are in short supply and in high demand!  We sold this three bedroom, two bathroom single-story house for $625,000 within a week after putting the house on the market. The house is located on a corner lot in Northwest Rancho Penasquitos, right down the street from the back entrance to Mesa Verde Middle School, and also within walking distance to Deer Canyon Elementary and Westview High, all three top-rated schools in North County San Diego.

Rancho Penasquitos Single-Story House

Single story house near Deer Canyon Elementary and Mesa Verde Middle Schools

The sellers of this Rancho Penasquitos house had purchased the property in 2008 for $550,000.  The San Diego real estate market had only recently begun the recession which would last until around 2011.  So for several years the value had dropped below the purchase price, but by 2014 home values had recovered in most neighborhoods, especially in this price range in zip code 92129.  In the interim, the Sellers had made one major upgrade to the home, installing new dual-paned windows throughout the house.

Updated Homes in Rancho Penasquitos

This Rancho Penasquitos home has an updated kitchen with granite and center island

As experienced Rancho Penasquitos Realtors, we were confident that there would be high demand for this home, and estimated the value at $625,000.  Although very few and far between, the recent sales of similar homes in 92129 within the prior six months had been between $575,000 and $600,000.  And with the current trend of rising prices, we determined that a price range of $599,000 to $649,000 was the most likely way to fetch the highest market price for the property.

Value Range Pricing Strategty

Why use “value range pricing” when listing a home for sale?  Range prices work best in markets where real estate values are rising.  The lower end of the price range attracts buyers who are looking in the lower price bracket, which in this case was 3-bedroom homes up to $600,000.  If a property is listed above the lower price bracket, say $625,000 in this example, the prospective home buyers who are searching for homes up to $600,000 would not see the property in their Internet search results.  Since 99% of San Diego home buyers search for homes on the Internet, pricing only slightly above a lower bracket unnecessarily excludes a large number of home buyers who would otherwise be interested in the property.  And most prospective buyers, when finding a home that is only slightly above their “maximum” purchase price, will find a way to come up with the additional down payment or loan amount.  In the best case scenario, in the hottest real estate markets, buyers will bid a property all the way up to the top end of the range price.  Most homes listed with value range pricing will sell somewhere in the middle of the range.

The Value Range Pricing for this property worked out exactly as planned.  A large number of prospective home buyers in Rancho Penasquitos attended the very first Open House.  Offers came in, and the highest offer was exactly in the middle of the price range, at $625,000, exactly as the Rancho Penasquitos real estate experts here at SDRealtyPros had predicted!

What To Do About Low Appraisal When Selling

But selling homes in markets where real estate values are rising has one major risk… When home buyers need to get a mortgage loan in order to buy the home, the property must appraise at or above the purchase price in order for the bank to give the loan.  Banks hire real estate appraisers to give an opinion of value, and appraisers are under significant pressure from banks these days to make sure that their appraisals are accurate, even unrealistically conservative, in relation to similar recent sales.  And that’s what happened with this home.  Although the home buyers were willing to pay $625,000 for this home, the bank’s appraiser refused to give an appraisal higher than $605,000.

When an appraisal comes in below the agreed upon Purchase Price, there are four things that can happen: 1) The Buyer can come up with additional down payment money to make up the difference between the appraised value and the purchase price; 2) The Seller can agree to reduce the Purchase Price to the appraised value; 3) The Buyer and Seller can negotiate a combination of the first two possibilities and meet somewhere in the middle; or, 4) The Buyer or Seller can cancel the transaction. 

92129 House on Corner Lot

This house in 92129 is on a corner lot near back entrance to Mesa Verde Middle School and Deer Canyon Elementary

In this case the buyer was unable to bring in any additional money.  The seller of this house in Rancho Penasquitos decided that rather than cancel the transaction and look for another buyer, they preferred to reduce the purchase price and conclude the transaction with no further delay.  So the Seller agreed to reduce the purchase price to $605,000 and the sale was completed on schedule.  The appraiser had acted to the benefit of the bank and the home buyer, to the detriment of the home seller.  Our Realtor had provided the best possible comparable sales data and argument on behalf of the Seller, but without any nearby recent sales above $605,000, the appraiser refused to accept the argument that in a neighborhood like Rancho Penasquitos, where supply is low, demand is high, and prices are rising, a higher appraisal is justified.  It’s disappointing for the home seller, but the fact is that their Rancho Penasquitos Realtor here at San Diego Realty Pros had successfully used the value range pricing strategy to sell the house for $20,000 more than the appraised value of the property.  If the Seller had decided to cancel the sale and let us find another buyer for them, a different appraiser may have seen it our way!

San Diego Realtor Geoffrey Schiering appears here on CNBC Powerlunch with Tyler Mathisen to discuss the San Diego real estate market and homes for sale in Carmel Valley, Rancho Penasquitos, and Rancho Santa Fe.  We were asked to identify properties that best represent the markets for entry-level, move-up homes, and luxury homes in North County San Diego.  We selected a townhome in Carmel Valley 92130, an executive style five bedroom house in Rancho Penasquitos 92129, and a luxury estate in Rancho Santa Fe 92067.  At this time the average price of houses in San Diego County is $645,000, the market is hot and prices are rising, especially in the entry-level and move-up categories.

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Carmel Valley Townhouse 92130

The townhome on Carmel Creek Road in Carmel Valley really illustrated the high demand for entry-level homes in zip code 92130.  The Halcyon complex is clean and centrally located near I-5 and just 10 minutes from the beach in Del Mar, CA.  We listed this property in the price range $449,000 to $459,000 and in the first day after putting the townhouse on the market it was overbid and sold for $470,o00 to an all-cash buyer.  The schools in Carmel Valley are a big draw to the area. Torrey Pines High School is consistently rated as the best public high school in San Diego County.

Houses Near Camino Del Sur 92129

The house on Via Las Lenas in Rancho Penasquitos provides another example of the high demand for homes in the best school districts in San Diego.  Located just East of the Camino Del Sur exit off Highway 56, just East of Carmel Valley, Rancho Penasquitos homes for sale in zip code 92129 are slightly less expensive than similar homes just a few minutes to the West in 92130.  Priced at $699,000, this house in the Westridge neighborhood appealed to families looking at properties that fall within the super-conforming loan limit of $697,500.  Loans above that amount are considered Jumbo Loans, carrying a higher interest rate and more stringent qualification guidelines.  This house was overbid by a whopping $78,000 and sold for $775,000 after just one Open House.

Horse Property Rancho Santa Fe 92067

The luxury home featured her is located in Rancho Serena in Rancho Santa Fe.  Listed for $1,950,000, this property features five bedrooms, four and a half bedrooms and 5,102 square feet of living area on a half acre lot. Like many of the estate properties in Rancho Santa Fe, this home has a swimming pool, large yard, and horse facilities including an equestrian practice ring.  Land in zip code 92067 quite valuable, and this is a very good location on the West side of The Ranch, near Lomas Santa Fe Country Club.

As mentioned at the beginning of the segment, there is really a tale of two real estate markets in San Diego County.  The entry level homes and move up homes under the super-conforming loan amount of $697,500 sell very quickly.  The luxury homes priced well over $1 Million sell much more slowly with more room for negotiation.  As mentioned above, the houses in Carmel Valley and Rancho Penasquitos both sold in just a few days, and were overbid by the buyers.  The house on Rancho Serena Road  remained on the market for 252 days and then the listing expired.  The owners decided not to sell until the market for luxury homes in Rancho Santa Fe improves.

Deals in Rancho Penasquitos 92129

Geoffrey Schiering by Geoffrey Schiering

Great deal on a house in the Poway Unified School District!

Excellent condition. Private back yard with view. Highly rated elementary school within walking distance.
And, best of all, the price has been SLASHED to $549,000!!!

Awesome House for Sale in Rancho Penasquitos – San Diego CA 92129
Overview

Maps

Photos

Description


14469 JANAL WAY : RANCHO PENASQUITOS HOMES FOR SALE

Neighborhood

$549,000
Single Family Home
Main Features
4 Bedrooms
3 Bathrooms
Interior: 2561 sqft
Location
14469 Janal Way
Rancho Penasquitos, CA 92129
USA

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Anne-Marie & Geoffrey Schiering: The Schiering Team at Keller Williams Realty Anne-Marie & Geoffrey Schiering: The Schiering Team at Keller Williams Realty
San Diego Real Estate Professionals at Keller Williams
(619) 200-7612
homes@sdrealtypros.com
http://www.sdrealtypros.com

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Carmel Valley Real Estate Thanks!

Geoffrey Schiering by Geoffrey Schiering

Your San Diego real estate professionals took time to give back to the community last week.  Keller Williams Carmel Valley Del Mar Realtors conducted our second annual food drive for Military Outreach Ministries of Camp Pendleton.  We collected more than 1,300 bags of groceries for needy military families, far surpassing our goal of 1,000 bags of groceries!  The food will go to great use by the families who are on tight budgets while so many fathers and mothers are deployed in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere serving our country.

In this short one minute video, Anne-Marie Schiering of Keller Williams Realty shows the results of the hard work and generous donations from the San Diego community.  The event is called “Red Day”, a day when Keller Williams agents Give Back to Our Communities.

Food donations were received from Carmel Valley, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Rancho Santa Fe, Encinitas, Cardiff, Carlsbad, La Jolla, University City, Rancho Penasquitos, Clairemont, and throughout San Diego County.  Your Keller Williams real estate agents also took posts outside area grocery stores including Vons and Ralphs, where we received tremendous support from the community.  We can’t thank you enough for your donations!

The community-centered philosophy of Keller Williams Realty is just one of the reasons that ours is the best real estate brokerage in the United States.  Red Day is a nationwide event for Keller Williams agents.  In addition to food drives, our agents build homes for Habitat for Humanity, pick up trash in parks, lakes and rivers, renovate houses in communities that have been hit hard with foreclosures, and pitch in wherever the communities need it most.  For more information about Red Day and Keller Williams philosophies in general, please visit KW.com.

Carmel Valley Realtors Keller Williams Red Day

Geoff & Anne-Marie Schiering, Keller Williams Carmel Valley Real Estate

Special thanks go to our friends at St. Peter’s Episcopal Church in Del Mar, to neighbors in Rancho Penasquitos, and to our past clients.  When we made the call that we “could use your help” so many of you responded that we were deeply moved by your friendship.  Again, thank you for your support!  We truly could not have done this without you.

San Diego Luxury Homes Facebook Fan Page

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Let’s stay in touch on Facebook! Click the link to the left. Visit Geoff & Anne-Marie’s San Diego Luxury Homes Facebook Fan Page and click “Like” to become a fan. Thanks again!

Rancho Penasquitos Real Estate Pros Enjoyed the Day at the 15th Annual Fiesta De Los Penasquitos

Your Rancho Penasquitos real estate professionals are excited to report on the 15th annual Fiesta de los Penasquitos which was held yesterday, Sunday May 2, 2010.  The festival is a big highlight for residents of Rancho Penasquitos homes and the surrounding San Diego community.  It is an opportunity for area musicians and students to showcase their talents, and is fun and entertaining for people of all ages.  This year’s annual street festival drew approximately 15,000 people and was a great success.

This year’s performance schedule was packed with talent on three stages.  My personal favorites were the performances by our local high school and middle school students.  The Mariachi Griego de Montgomery Middle School was a big hit, with more than a dozen singers, horn players, and violinists lighting up the stage with classical mariachi music and ornate Mexican costumes.  Westview High School was also well represented by the Westview Saxophone Quintet, which put on a great show of modern jazz.  Other musical highlights included world music from TINKU-Latin Rhythm, Terry Matsuoka, the House of Puerto Rico (San Diego) and Zimbeat.

Dancers of all ages were featured on the Pavilion Stage throughout the day.  The Rosie-Ritchie Academy of Irish Dance entertained with true Riverdance style.  The young ladies from the Academy of Dance Arts put on two dramatic and well synchronized shows.  The students from the City Ballet were graceful and inspirational. Step by Step dance and Giminny Kids also showcased their talents.

The Rancho Penasquitos martial arts academies also put on shows and generously offered vouchers for free martial arts classes.  The students at United Studios of Self Defense and Swift Kick Martial Arts put on wonderful demonstrations discipline, strength, and coordination.  It is no wonder that these martial arts programs are so popular with kids and their parents in Rancho Penasquitos.

Proceeds from the festival go toward grant awards to individuals and organizations that serve Rancho Penasquitos and the San Diego region.  The event itself is free, but money is raised in the form of sponsorships and ticket sales for the rides, games, and attractions.  This year’s sponsors included the Rancho Penasquitos Town Council, SDG&E, AT&T, The Home Depot, Doubletree Golf Resort, Bertrand’s Music, the San Diego Commission for Arts and Culture, and others.

The Fiesta de los Penasquitos is just another reason why Rancho Penasquitos homes are constantly in high demand.  Perfect weather, great schools, and the friendly community atmosphere are just a few of the other reasons.  If you have questions about Rancho Penasquitos or San Diego real estate in general, please drop us a line.  We’re always glad to help!

San Diego Realtors At Miramar

Geoffrey Schiering by Geoffrey Schiering
After break from showing homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos, San Diego Realtors head to Miramar

After break from showing homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos, San Diego Realtors head to Miramar

Every year, residents of San Diego look forward to the Miramar Air Show on the first weekend of October. Nearly a quarter million people converge on the Miramar Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS Miramar) to view a well orchestrated display of aircraft acrobatics. Residents of Mira Mesa, Sorrento Valley, Clairemont and Scripps Ranch homes get backyard views of an assortment of jets, stunt planes, military transports, hand gliders, sky divers, sky writers, and thrilling fireworks. People from all over the Southwest come to San Diego to enjoy the show.

This year’s air show was held Friday October 2 through Sunday October 4. I was showing homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos on Friday, and was able to see some planes from afar. With such nice weather, I really didn’t want to miss the event so I gathered up the family and headed to Miramar on Saturday.

The Patriots' L-39 Jets flew in formation over neighboring Mira Mesa and La Jolla homes

The Patriots' L-39 Jets flew in formation over neighboring Mira Mesa and La Jolla homes

After a year’s absence, the U.S. Navy Blue Angels Flight Demonstration Team returned to San Diego to headline the event. The sky was crystal clear on Saturday as the Blue Angels streaked and looped through a twenty-plus minute performance of high speed acrobatics. Your very own San Diego Realtor caught the great photo of the Blue Angels leaving smoke in formation right beside this year’s MCAS Miramar Air Show banner, above.  The public may use these as free stock photos of San Diego to use on the web as long as the photo contains attribution in the form of a link back to this website.

The Canadian Snowbirds Jet Demonstration Team flew the event for the first time, and the 24-member group impressed the crowd with elegant maneuvers, including a tight nine jet formation. The Patriots Team of L-39 jets started the Saturday twilight show.  As the sky darkened, the U.S. Army Golden Knights Parachute Team was a crowd pleaser. The paratroopers jumped from high altitudes, leaving smoke trails in artistic patterns as they accurately descend upon tiny targets below. Late in the day, at the twilight show on Saturday, the Golden Knights jumped at dusk, trailing sparks through the darkened San Diego sky.

The air show couldn’t have been a better success this year. After several years of clouds, the weather cooperated beautifully. The Marines always handle the massive crowds with care will also putting on an effective display of giant crowd control. It is an easy drive up I-15 to Miramar Way, and a slow roll into the parking area. Spectators then must endure a long walk from the parking lot to the flight line, which is only partially offset by the free shuttle bus routes. Most people just plan to do a lot of walking, but the walk is worth it.

One of the greatest things about living in San Diego, aside from the weather, of course, is the great number of entertainment options. I recommend taking a day away from the San Diego beach homes and joining the crowds at the Miramar Air Show. It really is fun for the whole family.

Rancho Penasquitos Canyon Homes

Geoffrey Schiering by Geoffrey Schiering

Los Penasquitos Canyon Preserve A Back Yard Blessing

When outdoor enthusiasts think about living in San Diego, the first things that usually come to mind are the ocean and the beaches. Not everyone realizes the extent of the recreational opportunities that are available in San Diego’s inland communities. There are lakes and parks throughout San Diego County which offer scenery, outdoor activities, or just some good old fashion peace and quiet. On a recent September morning I had the pleasure of hiking with my family in the Los Penasquitos Canyon Preserve, and the experience was worth writing home about.

Rancho Penasquitos Canyon Stream at Los Penasquitos Preserve

Rancho Penasquitos Canyon Stream at Los Penasquitos Preserve

The Los Penasquitos Canyon Preserve is a sprawling canyon park which stretches from the East side of Rancho Penasquitos (just East of I-15, essentially bordering Poway and Scripps Ranch), seven miles to the West side of Mira Mesa (almost to the ocean near homes in La Jolla and Del Mar). The East entrance is at the corner of Black Mountain Road and Mercy Road. Other convenient entrances are at Penasquitos Creek Park in Park Village (Rancho Penasquitos) or at Canyonside Park just South of the 56 on Black Mountain Road.

Encompassing approximately 4,000 acres, Los Penasquitos Canyon is shockingly large for a park that is basically right in the heart of North San Diego County. There are houses in Rancho Penasquitos, Mira Mesa, Sorrento Valley, and Carmel Valley homes that have canyon views, but hikers inside the canyon enjoy complete isolation. California Oaks, Sycamores, and other native plants line the interior of the canyon, and it feels like some far-away mountainside. Penasquitos Canyon Creek runs through the middle of the park, with wooden footbridge crossings in three locations.

A relaxing day in the canyon for one lucky San Diego Realtor and his boys.

A relaxing day in the canyon for one lucky San Diego Realtor and his boys.

Even on the busiest days there are remarkably few people in the canyon. The occasional mountain biker or hiker does pass by, but there are long stretches of complete privacy. Horse enthusiasts frequent the canyon for its long traffic-free trails, so you may pass a rider or two. My kids enjoy the opportunity to meet the horses and talk to the riders. But we most enjoy catching sights of the wildlife in the canyon, including mule deer, coyotes, ducks, great blue herons.

I frequently list homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos and in Mira Mesa, and know that homes in these neighborhoods offer good value as compared to  other San Diego real estate. It takes only about 15 minutes to drive from Rancho Penasquitos to the beach in Del Mar, and only about 20 minutes to Downtown San Diego. There are ocean breezes that blow through 56 Corridor, keeping the neighborhood cooler than other inland San Diego communities. There is plenty of shopping and restaurants. And anyone who is interested can enjoy the peaceful atmosphere and recreation available at Los Penasquitos Canyon Preserve.

San Diego Real Estate Prices Part 2

Geoffrey Schiering by Geoffrey Schiering

Carmel Valley / East Del Mar

When looking at the upper-end of the San Diego real estate market, one thing is clear. There are lots of homes to choose from. A perfect example is in the Carmel Valley zip code 92130 where there are presently 221 houses for sale. Considering that there are only 5,995 detached homes for sale in all of San Diego County, Carmel Valley accounts for 3.7% of the detached single-family house listings in the San Diego MLS. The number is lower for condos and townhomes. The 62 condos for sale in Carmel Valley represent just 2.1% of the 2,982 condos for sale in San Diego County as a whole.

The absorption rate (approximate time to sell the existing inventory) in Carmel Valley is also larger than in San Diego as a whole. In June 2009, there were only 32 homes sold in Carmel Valley (almost a 7-month supply). This was 18% fewer sales than in June 2008. With the increased inventory and longer market times, the median sales price also slipped in June, far more than other parts of San Diego County where there is arguably a housing recovery underway. The median price of a home in Carmel Valley in June 2009 was 13.5% the June 2009 median price, and 30% below the June 2005 median price. Where there used to be none, there are currently 79 houses for sale in Carmel Valley that are priced under $1 Million.

Until recently, home prices in Carmel Valley had been pretty stable relative to the rest of San Diego. Carmel Valley (East Del Mar) has so many things going for it: top-rated schools, newer housing stock, good proximity to employment centers, freeways, and beaches, superb weather, lots of clean family-friendly parks, etc. And there is a much wider range of housing types in Carmel Valley; much more variety than the neighboring Rancho Penasquitos homes, previously discussed in Part I of the San Diego Real Estate Prices blog post. The most expensive home currently on the market in Carmel Valley is a 10,000+ square foot estate priced at $7,995,000 (this is a reduced price, down from $9,995,000). The lowest priced Carmel Valley house for sale is a 1,348 square foot home priced at $545,000. Due to the large variation of home styles and prices, the median price is a better gauge of market activity than the average price. The average price really becomes skewed whenever the large Carmel Valley luxury homes sell.

It’s hard to say when prices will stabilize in Carmel Valley. There were three times as many homes listed in Carmel Valley in June than were sold. However, there are currently twice as many homes in pending status than were sold in June. So July and August should show some higher median and average price numbers.

When priced right, Carmel Valley homes are still selling. The average time-on-market for the homes that sold in June 2009 was 59 days, and the median time-on-market was just 35 days. In June 2009 there wasn’t a single home that sold over asking price, and only a few homes sold at asking price. So the time is right to negotiate when buying a home in Carmel Valley or in any of the San Diego luxury homes communities.

San Diego Real Estate Prices Part1

Geoffrey Schiering by Geoffrey Schiering

Rancho Penasquitos

I cringe when I read the newspaper or hear a report on the TV or radio that gives a median home price or average house price for San Diego County. This is a large and diverse area. San Diego home sales differ between neighborhoods almost as much as the San Diego terrains and microclimates. When we talk about San Diego weather, it can be cool and cloudy at the beach but hot and sunny just a few miles inland. On a few January days, you might be playing golf without a jacket and then later that evening drive up to enjoy a few snowflakes on Mt Laguna.

The same holds true in the San Diego real estate market with the different types of San Diego homes. Inventory is low and moving quickly in some areas and price levels, but still languishing in others.

So what are the hot areas of the San Diego real estate market? Where are the sales still slow? Over the next few days, I’ll update you on activity in several neighborhoods.

Rancho Penasquitos Houses (zip code 92129)

In June 2009, the number of houses sold in Rancho Penasquitos was up 10% from June 2008. That’s not saying much, because only 33 Rancho Penasquitos homes sold in June 2009; which was just 3 more than in June 2008.

The newspapers frequently report based on “median price.” The median price of homes is not a particularly useful number, because median simply means there was an equal number that sold above the median price and below the median price. The median price of homes in Rancho Penasquitos was $548,000 in June 2009. That’s 21.7% below the median reached at the top of the market in June 2005, and just 4.3% lower than the median in June 2008. But in May 2009 the median price in Rancho Penasquitos had spiked to $640,000 from just $520,000 in April 2009. So it takes a deeper analysis to get a feel for what’s going on in the San Diego real estate market.

The median number of days on market for the June 2009 Rancho Penasquitos home sales was just 15 days, which is less than half the time that it took to sell a house in Rancho Penasquitos in June 2008. When evaluating market times the median number of days on market is more instructive than the average market time because short sales linger on the market during the bank approval process. Banks are incredibly slow to respond to short sale applications, with an average response time of 6 months or more. So the median of 15 days means that at least half of the Rancho Penasquitos homes sold in less than 2 weeks. That’s hardly any time at all when it comes to real estate sales.

The “market turnover” figure tells a similar story. In June 2009, 40 homes were listed for sale in PQ. As of today (July 14) 18 of the June listings are already under contract. There currently are 47 active listings of houses in zip code 92129. So, in other words, based upon the June sales volume, there is currently a 1.4 month supply of homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos. The typical rule of thumb is that anything less than 2 months of inventory is a seller’s market. A 6-month supply of homes is considered to be a “normal” market in equilibrium.

There are an additional 30 house listings in “contingent” status in 92129. A “Contingent” listing is a bank-owned foreclosure (REO) or short sale property that has one or more offers awaiting approval from the bank. The sale is therefore contingent upon bank approval (Pending Bank Approval). Even adding the 30 Contingent Listings to the 47 active listings, there is still only a 2.1 month supply of homes for sale in Rancho Penasquitos.

Overbidding: Many homes sold in PQ during the month of June, particularly those priced under $550,000, received multiple offers. 10 of the 16 houses that were listed below $550,000 sold at or above asking price.

Mortgage Financing: According to the MLS statistics, four-fifths of the homes that sold in PQ during June 2009 were financed with conventional mortgages. Conventional mortgage loan guidelines require a 20% down payment, so the overwhelming majority of Rancho Penasquitos home owners are putting around $100,000 down on their purchases. This bodes well for future stability of the neighborhood. The remaining one-fifth of these Rancho Penasquitos home purchases were financed with FHA or VA loans. There were no all-cash purchases that closed escrow in 92129 during June 2009.

These numbers (along with subjective assessments by Rancho Penasquitos Realtors) indicate that Rancho Penasquitos is likely to see sustained price increases in the coming months. This assumes that there won’t be a major influx of new listings to boost supply beyond demand, and also assumes that interest rates stay at the current low levels (low 5% range for 30-year fixed mortgages).